12 Mar '12, 4am

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

This exercise provides a very rough estimate for 2012 and 2013 annual average surface temperatures, with a number of caveats. If solar cycle 24 continues to develop as expected, and and if an El Niño cycle develops as expected, and if there are no major volcanoes or other major changes in aerosol emissions, then this method projects a possible annual temperature record in 2012, and a likely record in 2013. In fact, because we can be confident that 2013 will be at or near a solar cycle peak, and we know the CO2-caused warming will continue upwards, 2013 will probably break the surface temperature record even if it's a moderate La Niña year (again, assuming there are no volcanic eruptions or other significant unaccounted-for effects).

Full article: http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1336

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