05 Mar '12, 9pm

"Iran is a very large country, with an area [greater than] Spain, France, Italy, and Germany combined."

"Iran is a very large country, with an area [greater than] Spain, France, Italy, and Germany combined."

The balance of interests around the Strait of Hormuz can be analysed from a Games Theory perspective. All players profit from the trade that passes in both senses through this choke-point, and any disruption has a negative impact on all of them; since they all stand to lose, no player changes strategy and the game remains in equilibrium. The sanctions imposed by the NATO members on Iran menace this equilibrium, as they can eventually translate into an effective disruption of the Strait, closing it to Iran for the large part. NATO has chosen this strategy because it now evaluates the equilibrium as having a negative impact: the hypothetical nuclear menace from Iran. In its turn, if the Iranian foreign trade is seriously impacted, then further disruption to the Strait stops having a negative impact internally, and a strategy change to active disruption becomes profitable bec...

Full article: http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-03-05/tactics-...

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