26 Oct '11, 8am

The Moscow Warming Hole

The Moscow Warming Hole

But the graph shows some further interesting things. Winter warming in the unadjusted data is as large as 4.1ºC over the past 130 years, summer warming about 1.7ºC – both much larger than global mean warming. Now look at the difference between adjusted and unadjusted data (shown by the red line): it is exactly the same for every month! That means: the urban heat island adjustment is not computed for each month separately but just applied in annual average, and it is a whopping 1.8ºC downward adjustment. This leads to a massive over-adjustment for urban heat island in summer, because the urban heat island in Moscow is mostly a winter phenomenon (see e.g. Lokoshchenko and Isaev ). This unrealistic adjustment turns a strong July warming into a slight cooling. The automatic adjustments used in global gridded data probably do a good job for what they were designed to do (remove...

Full article: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/10/the...

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