27 Aug '11, 1pm

Drumbeat: August 27, 2011

Yesterday, I bumped into Stuart Staniford's 2006 piece in TOD, Extrapolating World Production , and thought I would update two of the figures. world_production_1860_2040 world_growths_1860_2040 The orange diamonds represent the new information from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 historical data to provide data from 2005-2010. Staniford's original sources for recent data (2000-2004) were also from BP. The new data points are added by hand and are a bit imprecise. But it is clear that both production and growth are running high from the original logistics model and low of the Gaussian fit. Although closer to the high end of the logistics model. Staniford included this caveat ... However, there are trillions of possible barrels of LQHCs (low quality hydrocarbons), such as tar sands, extra-heavy oils, coal-to-liquids, and then biofuels. That stuff can't be ramp...

Full article: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8308

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