UC Davis ITS study concludes future annual growth rate of China’s vehicle parc may be double current forecasts
UC Davis ITS study concludes future annual growth rate of China’s vehicle parc may be double current forecasts 9 April 2011 Yunshi Wang, Jacob Teter and Daniel Sperling from the University of California Davis Institute of Transportation Studies report that the growth rate of China’s vehicle population could reach 13-17% per year—roughly twice the 6-11% widely forecast for annual growth. Their analysis is published in the journal Energy Policy . Wang et al. analyzed the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history, and estimated vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries at 13–17% per year then. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil u...