30 Dec '16, 8pm

All models are, by nature, wrong, but can be "credible" & useful. See @ClimateOfGavin:

…Models are not right or wrong; they’re always wrong. They’re always approximations. The question you have to ask is whether a model tells you more information than you would have had otherwise. If it does, it’s skillful…. I could go through a dozen…examples: the skill associated with solar cycles, changing the ozone in the stratosphere; the skill associated with orbital changes over 6,000 years. We can look at that too, and the models are skillful. The models are skillful in response to the ice sheets 20,000 years ago. The models are skillful when it comes to the 20th-century trends over the decades. Models are successful at modeling lake outbursts into the North Atlantic 8,000 years ago. And we can get a good match to the data. Each of these different targets, each of these different evaluations, leads us to add more scope to these models, and leads us to more and more c...

Full article: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/gavin-schmid...

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