13 Jun '11, 1pm

Where are US Global Warming Emissions Headed? New analysis gives us some hints

Where are US Global Warming Emissions Headed? New analysis gives us some hints

But before giving some detail on the results here is a little perspective on the EIA’s analytical track record. First , EIA’s projections of energy use and emissions have been reduced each time a new analysis is released since their earlier projections had overestimated the growth in emissions (as my colleague highlighted ). This isn’t because they are bad analysts. It is just hard to predict future energy use in an ever changing world and they don’t want to be perceived as radicals (so their analysis tends to be conservative). [Note: the same could also be said of the International Energy Agency.] Second , EIA projections are based on the “policies on the books”. Their “reference case” analysis “generally assumes that current laws and regulations affecting the energy sector remain unchanged throughout the projection.” So their reference case doesn’t include policies that ...

Full article: http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/jschmidt/where_are_us_g...

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