09 Jun '16, 2pm

June ENSO discussion: The New Neutral | NOAA

It is hard to make a definitive attribution on the cause of the recent above normal rainfall in Malaysia. However, the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northeastern Indian Ocean, including the vicinity of Malasia and southeast Asia, has been above average. This can produce above average atmospheric water vapor, leading to rainfall in the region. Why has the SST been above average? Above average SST in at least the east side of the region, including Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific Ocean, often develops in association with La Nina, and below average SST often develops in association with El Nino. During this strong El Nino that just ended, below average SST did not appear. And since La Nina is not present yet right now (although it is favored to develop in the next few months), we cannot say that the above average SST is due to La Nina. So ENSO may not be play...

Full article: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/june-ens...

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