Extreme metrics

What this shows first of all is that extreme heat waves, like the ones mentioned, are not just “black swans ” – i.e. extremely rare events that happened by “bad luck”. They might look like rare unexpected events when you just focus on one location, but looking at the whole globe, as Hansen et al. did, reveals an altogether different truth: such events show a large systematic increase over recent decades and are by no means rare any more. At any given time, they now cover about 10% of the planet. What follows is that the likelihood of 3 sigma+ temperature events (defined using the 1951-1980 baseline mean and sigma) has increased by such a striking amount that attribution to the general warming trend is practically assured. We have neither long enough nor good enough observational data to have a perfect knowledge of the extremes of heat waves given a steady climate, and so n...

Full article: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/08/ext...

Tweets

@davebrownz » 24 Aug '12, 2am
Extreme metrics [link]
@linzel » 22 Aug '12, 1pm
Hansen et al [2012] on increase probability of events. Extreme metrics [link] #removewalls
@ClimaTweets » 20 Aug '12, 3pm
[RealClimate] Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the Hansen et al (2012, PNAS) pape... [link]
@St_Matthiesen » 20 Aug '12, 3pm
@haggismaths perhaps useful example for stdev for your course? Also comment 16 [link]
@tomfid » 20 Aug '12, 1am
Extreme metrics [link]
@ramblemuse » 19 Aug '12, 5pm
MT @RealClimate: Extreme metrics [link] How statistics of temperature extremes have changed in past decades. #climate
@cchau » 19 Aug '12, 4pm
RT @adrianco: Extreme metrics < why Hansen's climate paper is focused on a useful metric. Non linear effects of temperature change. [link]
@DRTucker » 19 Aug '12, 3pm
Extreme metrics [link]
@JBElliott2718 » 19 Aug '12, 3pm
Extreme metrics [link] even more evidence for climate change.
@adrianco » 19 Aug '12, 3pm
Extreme metrics < why Hansen's climate paper is focused on a useful metric. Non linear effects of temperature change. [link]
@lawscribe » 19 Aug '12, 2pm
RT @delong: “extreme heat waves... are not just 'black swans'... such events show a large systematic increase over recent decades” [link]
@SouBundanga » 19 Aug '12, 2pm
Extreme metrics - discussing comments on the recent Hansen paper on extremes-the new normal #climate [link]
@delong » 19 Aug '12, 2pm
“extreme heat waves... are not just 'black swans'... such events show a large systematic increase over recent decades” [link]
@MW_2112 » 19 Aug '12, 1pm
RT @Revkin: Gavin @realclimate: Hansen, Hoerling & @Cliffmass are all right on extreme-heat and AGW, just answering different Q's: [link]
@RealClimate » 19 Aug '12, 12pm
Extreme metrics [link]
@Revkin » 19 Aug '12, 12pm
Gavin @realclimate: Hansen, Hoerling & @Cliffmass are all right on extreme-heat and AGW, just answering different Q's: [link]
@dakepage » 19 Aug '12, 12pm
Extreme metrics - Examining Hansen's assertion that extreme events have increased due to climate change [link]
@mammuthus » 19 Aug '12, 11am
Interesting article at RealClimate on James Hansen's recent much talked about paper [link]
@CollinMaessen » 19 Aug '12, 10am
Extreme metrics [link]
@estatemizuta » 19 Aug '12, 10am
RT @matsubara_hiro: 気候変動と異常気象の因果関係に関する論文(英語) 世界の平均気温の上昇と共に世界各地で異常高温の頻度が確かに増えているようです。RealClimate: Extreme metrics - [link]
@stopheles » 19 Aug '12, 10am
@tveitdal @climatehawks @ClimateCentral Worthwhile looking at [link] for J.Hansen's Wash Post piece. #climate #globalwarming
@JosOlivier » 19 Aug '12, 9am
Interesting! Extreme #climatechange #metrics discussed in context of Jim #Hansen's Wash Post op-ed. [link]
@BjerknesBCCR » 19 Aug '12, 7am
Interessant om statistikken bak den økende tendensen til ekstreme hetebølger: [link]
@RUBGSVD » 19 Aug '12, 7am
Extreme metrics: This metric comes follows on from work that Hansen did a decade ago exploring the question of w... [link]
@NoirDefi » 19 Aug '12, 6am
RealClimate: Extreme metrics [link] Séries statistiques : connaître la "vérité" implique un choix rigoureux du mode de calcul
@ralphpina » 19 Aug '12, 5am
Extreme heat waves are not black swans anymore [link]
@topsciencenews » 19 Aug '12, 5am
#Real_Climate Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the paper and the accompanying op-e... [link]
@nkesmits » 19 Aug '12, 5am
Waarom vandaag extreem is en morgen minder bijzonder: extreem #klimaat [link] #climatechange RT @TheAlexKnapp
@TheAlexKnapp » 19 Aug '12, 4am
Extreme metrics [link]
@global_event » 19 Aug '12, 4am
Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the Hansen et al (2012, PNAS) paper and the accom... [link]
@matsubara_hiro » 19 Aug '12, 4am
気候変動と異常気象の因果関係に関する論文(英語) 世界の平均気温の上昇と共に世界各地で異常高温の頻度が確かに増えているようです。RealClimate: Extreme metrics - [link]
@TheWingnutBuzz » 19 Aug '12, 4am
[link] Nice simplified statistical report on climate change
@EarthKnowledge » 19 Aug '12, 4am
Real Climate: Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the paper and the accompanying op-ed in... [link]
@djspooky » 19 Aug '12, 4am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@MichaelEMann » 19 Aug '12, 4am
Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@Geoblogfeed » 19 Aug '12, 3am
Extreme metrics [link]
@Climate_Change » 19 Aug '12, 3am
Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the paper and the accompanying op-ed in the Washi... [link]
@REVUESCIENCES » 19 Aug '12, 3am
#Sciences Extreme metrics: There has been a lot of discussion related to the Hansen et al (2012, PNAS) paper an... [link]
@JosOlivier » 19 Aug '12, 10am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@gyxk56 » 19 Aug '12, 9am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@AndreiLintu » 19 Aug '12, 9am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@uppsalainit » 19 Aug '12, 5am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@dana1981 » 19 Aug '12, 5am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@busbyj2 » 19 Aug '12, 5am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@CEamer » 19 Aug '12, 5am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]
@AdamskiPeter » 19 Aug '12, 4am
RT @MichaelEMann: Gavin's #RealClimate post ("Extreme Metrics") on recent Hansen study: [link] . My own commentary here: [link]

Extreme metrics

Extreme metrics

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