10 Jul '12, 5pm

Odds of recent US heat wave happening randomly: 1 in 1,594,323. #climate

Odds of recent US heat wave happening randomly: 1 in 1,594,323. #climate

Every month, NOAA’s National Climactic Data Center releases a “State of the Climate” report, analyzing weather trends and climate anomalies in the U.S. This morning, they released the report for June 2012 . As part of it, they did some math. During the June 2011-June 2012 period, each of the 13 consecutive months ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895-present record. The odds of this occurring randomly is 1 in 1,594,323. Brad Plumer quotes Jeff Masters from Wunderground.com, who writes : [W]e should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD — assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years. These are ridiculously long odds, and it is highly unlikely that the extremity of the heat during the past 13 months could have occurred without a warming climate. It is over ...

Full article: http://grist.org/news/gambling-advice-dont-bet-that-the-w...

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