28 Jan '15, 5pm

"Questions About Blown Blizzard Forecasts, and the Gender of Blizzard Forecasters" by ANDREW C. REVKIN via NYT

"Questions About Blown Blizzard Forecasts, and the Gender of Blizzard Forecasters" by ANDREW C. REVKIN via NYT

[A]lthough the forecast “bust” was not as bad as it might appear, it did reveal some significant weaknesses in how my profession makes and communicates forecasts, weaknesses that National Weather Service director Louis Uccellini says he recognizes and will attempt to fix…. [T]here is no way one could call this forecast a major failure. The NWS predicted a strong cyclone moving up the coast and they were right. They predicted heavy snow over eastern Long Island and New England and were correct. The snow forecast over New York was substantially overblown, but 9 inches is still a significant event. But the forecast could have been much better and far more useful. The forecasters failed to communicate the level of forecast uncertainty and did not change the forecast rapidly enough over New York when it was clear the storm was moving farther offshore. And it reveals major defic...

Full article: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/questions-ab...

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