03 May '12, 8pm

My new post: Predictions about the impacts of climate change involve politics as much as science.

My new post: Predictions about the impacts of climate change involve politics as much as science.

The future’s getting hotter, and nobody chihuahua-nts that. One more quick note on my exchange with climate scientist Jonathan Foley (poor guy never signed up to be my foil; that’ll teach him to tweet). In mulling over what counts as “alarmism,” I mentioned the recent report from the International Energy Agency warning that, on our current trajectory, we’re headed to 6 degrees C (~11 degrees F) global temperature rise by 2100. Given that 2 degrees C is generally accepted as the threshold of safety, 6 degrees C sounds pretty alarming! Foley — who’s worked with models for years — said that 6 degrees C is “implausible” and that most climate scientists he knows don’t take it seriously. Why? Because it assumes business-as-usual out to 2100; that is to say, it projects no major changes in our energy system. That seems unlikely. How much will the world mobilize to transform its e...

Full article: http://grist.org/politics/science-alone-cant-tell-us-how-...

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