28 Nov '14, 1pm

A clearer picture how climate change affects El Niño?

A clearer picture how climate change affects El Niño?

I still remember the first time I was asked about how climate change affects El Niño. It was given as a group exercise during a winter school in Les Houghes (in France) back in February 1996. Since then, I have kept thinking about this question, and I have not been the only one wondering about this. Now I had my hopes up as a new study was just published on the evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years (Liu et al., 2014) . The main results published by Liu et al., (2014) rely on simulations with one climate model (CCSM3 ), but we know that different climate models indicate that a global warming will have different effects on El Niño. So why would I trust new computer simulations with a model that has a coarser representation of the atmosphere and ocean? The spatial resolution of the model they used was described by the cryptic description “T31 ...

Full article: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/11/a-c...

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