17 Feb '12, 9am

EXCELLENT post by Roger Blanchard assessing the accuracy of EIA oil production forecasts.

In 2002, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) assessed the mean amount of technically recoverable oil from the NPR-A at 10.5 Gb. It was pretty obvious by then that the NPR-A would not produce anything close to 10.5 Gb based upon exploration results up to that point. Using the USGS assessment and making the assumption that it would take some years for production to start in the newly discovered fields, the U.S. DOE/EIA made the following statements in their Annual Energy Outlook 2003:

Full article: http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-02-17/how-reli...

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