07 Jan '12, 11pm

An Arctic methane worst-case scenario (not as bad as some think):

I find it encouraging to see so many comments mentioning possible very nasty surprises ahead. I’ll throw some numbers into the mix here to show that we do indeed have a black swan in the making. Ted Shuur (http://www.biology.ufl.edu/ecosystemdynamics/Schuur.html ) is one of the leading researchers on carbon in permafrost. He estimates that there are about 1,000 Pg (1 trillion tons) of carbon in the top 3 meters of the continuous Arctic permafrost. Back in 2005, using the NCAR CCSM3 model, Lawrence & Slater (GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 32, L24401, 5 PP., 2005) estimated that about 90% of the continuous permafrost down to the model’s depth of 3.43 meters would thaw this century. This was before we saw the disappearance of so much Arctic sea ice that has dramatically increased the thermal energy in the Arctic Ocean. Simulations executed by the NCAR suggest that the war...

Full article: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=10411

Tweets

An Arctic methane worst-case scenario

realclimate.org 07 Jan '12, 1pm

Let’s suppose that the Arctic started to degas methane 100 times faster than it is today. I just made that number up tryin...

An online model of methane in the atmosphere vi...

realclimate.org 11 Jan '12, 1pm

Thanks for the interactive model, but the assumption implicit in it is that there will be a one time spike or a steady qua...

Will Melting Arctic Ice Provide a Silver Lining for Shipping's Emissions?: Climate change means we'll have acces...

Will Melting Arctic Ice Provide a Silver Lining...

greenbiz.com 04 Jan '12, 6pm

A melting Arctic is prompting questions about climate change, geopolitics, and security among other topics, yet one questi...

"Much Ado About Methane" (by Dave Archer) just up at #RealClimate #climate #climatechange

"Much Ado About Methane" (by Dave Archer) just ...

realclimate.org 04 Jan '12, 6pm

So maybe by the end of the century in some reasonable scenario, perhaps 2000 Gton C could be released by human activity un...

Dot Earth Blog: 'Much Ado About Methane'

dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com 04 Jan '12, 10pm

The possibility of a catastrophic release is of course what gives methane its power over the imagination (of journalists i...

More Views on Climate Risk and Arctic Methane

dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com 28 Dec '11, 6pm

We have 800,000 years of methane records from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core [link to relevant paper ]. The highest v...

Dot Earth Blog: More Views on Climate Risk and ...

dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com 28 Dec '11, 6pm

We have 800,000 years of methane records from the Antarctic EPICA Dome C ice core [link to relevant paper ]. The highest v...

Bar Council President: "The case has unnecessar...

malaysianbar.org.my 09 Jan '12, 8am

Seminar on Guardianship of Infants Act 1961 (13 Jan 2012) Organised by the Selangor Bar Committee, this seminar, featuring...

Interesting comment from @forkncork cc @hasbean

theotherblackstuff.ie 12 Jan '12, 11am

Lists are great. There should be more lists. Here’s one with a negative tone: 1. The silent dishonesty of working in coffe...

A strong case for a rail- and transit-oriented California

A strong case for a rail- and transit-oriented ...

switchboard.nrdc.org 09 Jan '12, 1pm

Imagine a scenario by which our country’s most populous state, notorious for freeways, traffic nightmares and smog, could ...

The Puzzle of Rising Methane

green.blogs.nytimes.com 29 Dec '11, 12pm

Josh Haner/The New York Times Methane hot spots on a lake outside Fairbanks, Alaska. In an article the other day about tha...

Leaders of Arctic Methane Project Clarify Clima...

dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com 27 Dec '11, 6pm

We would first note that we have never stated that the reason for the currently observed methane emissions were due to rec...

Leaders of Arctic Methane Project Clarify Clima...

dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com 27 Dec '11, 5pm

We would first note that we have never stated that the reason for the currently observed methane emissions were due to rec...

Cutting methane and soot emissions could be sho...

e360.yale.edu 13 Jan '12, 3pm

13 Jan 2012: Reducing Methane and Soot Will Reduce Warming, Study Says An international team of scientists says that gover...