31 Dec '11, 12pm

BraveNewClimate: 2011 on Brave New Climate Full

Let me try and say this as simply as I can. Given a dataset, one has some question, The question is answered by offering a model which simplifies the real-world situation to a mathematical representation which allows one to “position” what one observes in that model such that one is able to decide if what is observed fits “comfortably” in that model or not. In the model you were working with, the mathematics simplified the data to a Gaussian (Normal) distribution of slopes for the fitted straight line centered on zero. You calculated a slope of 0.010886 with an estimated standard error of 0.005534 (with 13 degreees of freedom for the error estimate). Does this observation “sit comfortably” in this model or not? The observation sits in the right tail of the (t) distribution and the probability of larger values than observed is 0.035442. Strictly, one needs three numbers to ...

Full article: http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/12/31/2011-on-brave-new-c...

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