16 Sep '11, 6am
This month's ODAC newsletter is, in fact, a great article from Chris Skrebowski on where we're at peak oil-wise:
Ideally we need to identify a price curve to show the point economic growth is constrained to the point of vanishing but we are confronted with a paucity of data. We believe that $147/b in mid 2008 helped trigger the ‘Great Recession’ but the global economy was weakening from late 2007. We know that the run up in prices to around $120/b in 2Q 2011 brought growth to a near halt in a number of western economies and notably in Europe. But in this case the economies had not really recovered from the ‘Great Recession’. Douglas-Westwood analysis also shows that in mature economies, such as the US, there is a significant economic impact at over $90/barrel. In contrast China can probably sustain oil prices in the $100-110 range.