11 Aug '11, 7pm

A Bad Bet on Arctic Sea Ice

The mistake you are making, Andy, is to believe that this one study — using a model that the authors themselves acknowledge is flawed — somehow represents the definitive truth of the matter. [I'm assuming you are conceding all of the other critiques in my post that you don't address here.] I believe that this GRL analysis, which not only uses a flawed model but which focuses on extent, not volume, underestimates what is in fact happening in the Arctic. That doesn’t mean the short-term trend isn’t noisy. And, yes, it may be the case that the trend of the past two decades will stop this decade (or even briefly reverse itself), as this model says COULD happen. But other projections, including ones based on volume, come to a different conclusion. I am willing to put my money where my blog is — and you aren’t. You can hide behind this one study, to avoid making a bet, but that ...

Full article: http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/11/a-bad-bet-on...

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