27 Nov '16, 2am

via PEAK OIL: Tempering US Economic Growth Expectations #oilandgas

via PEAK OIL: Tempering US Economic Growth Expectations #oilandgas

There is also a lot of hope that lower tax rates could spur consumer spending propelling the economy out of the “muddle-through” growth rates experienced in this recovery. Without even discussing who will be the primary beneficiaries of lower taxes, a major issue with this argument is that the behavior of the consumer has changed since the financial crisis. Consumers are simply saving more of their disposable income. In the chart below we show a predicted savings rate based on the amount of consumer credit as a percentage of disposable income. The current savings rates is 5.7% while the predicted savings rate is 2.8%. Since the financial crisis, and especially since 2012, consumers are not leveraging up their personal balance sheets as their disposable income increases. The scars of the financial crisis may have permanently changed the behavior of the US consumer. Consumer...

Full article: http://peakoil.com/consumption/tempering-us-economic-grow...

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