30 Jan '16, 11pm

#peakoil The Fed’s Oil Price: In 1997, Ben Bernanke wrote a paper that argued the effect of an oil price shock...

In 1997, Ben Bernanke wrote a paper about the relationship between the price of oil and monetary policy. The paper’s thesis is the effect of an oil price shock can be compared to a change in monetary policy. If the oil price rises quickly, the economy would slow down by the equivalent of hiking several times the federal funds rate. In the 1990s, the comparison between a higher oil price and tighter monetary policy made sense because the economy was “price elastic” to oil demand. Higher oil prices would translate into higher gas prices which curbed consumer spending. Regardless the level of crude output, any change in the price of oil had a direct effect on aggregate demand. Transmission through markets worked similarly: rising oil prices would drive interest rates higher and lowered equity valuations on the prospect of a weakening economy. In Bernanke’s view, a rise in the...

Full article: http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/the-feds-oil-price

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