Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth

theoildrum.com 19 Jul '12, 8am

Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth

The usual assumption that economists, financial planners, and actuaries make is that future real GDP growth can be expected to be fairly similar to the average past growth rate for some historical time period. This assumption can take a number of forms–how much a portfolio can be expected to yield in a future period, or how high real (that is, net of inflation considerations) interest rates can be expected to be in the future, or what percentage of GDP the government of a country can safely borrow. But what if this assumption is wrong, and expected growth in real GDP is really declining over time? Then pension funding estimates will prove to be too low, amounts financial planners are telling their clients that invested funds can expect to build to will be too high, and estimates of the amounts that governments of countries can safely borrow will be too high. Other statemen...

Full article: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9343

Tweets

@ArentsHA » 02 Aug '12, 11pm
If you are wondering why #GDP growth is now slowing (and may keep on declining): the cause is not financial but fossil [link]
@r_marneffe » 02 Aug '12, 6am
#in [link]
@OntBizAttorney » 28 Jul '12, 1am
RT @DubiyaGeeBeeTee: “@TheOilDrum: The Oil Drum | Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]” A must read, supports Rubin
@DubiyaGeeBeeTee » 28 Jul '12, 1am
“@TheOilDrum: The Oil Drum | Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]” A must read, supports Rubin
@peakoilnl » 26 Jul '12, 6am
RT @LionelBadal: Evidence that #Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to #GDP Growth [link]
@zed260 » 26 Jul '12, 3am
@perfectdisk what do you think of this articles written in 2009 [link] and this newer one [link]
@zed260 » 25 Jul '12, 9pm
@bradplumer [link] [link] we live in a world with finite resources and as such there is a finite limit to global
@BrokxMedia » 25 Jul '12, 7pm
RT @SiemenCox: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] #peakoil #duurzaamheid #transitie
@SiemenCox » 25 Jul '12, 6pm
Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] #peakoil #duurzaamheid #transitie
@rezabfar » 23 Jul '12, 6pm
This is why investing in #Chevron, #Exxon, etc. is a MUCH better decision long term than "real-estate" [link]
@Hungrycities » 23 Jul '12, 4pm
Is part of the reason that GDP growth is slowing due to increasing constraints on fossil fuel supplies? [link]
@TTWycombe » 23 Jul '12, 7am
Evidence that oil production limits are leading to limits to GDP growth [link] via @postpeakliving
@asiersar » 21 Jul '12, 6pm
Petrolioaren mugak ekonomia hazkundearen muga dakarrela erakusten duen artikulua [link] [link] #theoildrum
@pv_reynolds » 21 Jul '12, 8am
Should we expect solid economic growth to return? [link]
@AlexIturbe2 » 20 Jul '12, 6pm
RT @benignopf: “@casdeiro: Para los que aún no entienden que si el petróleo declina, se acabó el crecimiento [link] #peakoil #endofgrowth
@xoseveiras » 20 Jul '12, 8am
RT @vesperadenada: If we want world real GDP to grow by 3.0% per year, we need oil supply to grow by 2.2% [link] via @theoildrum #peakoil
@tweetingdonal » 20 Jul '12, 3am
RT @kaskadia: Evidence that #Oil Limits are Leading 2 Limits 2 #GDP #Growth? (OilDrum) [link] #PeakOil #PostScarcity #energy
@kaskadia » 20 Jul '12, 3am
Evidence that #Oil Limits are Leading 2 Limits 2 #GDP #Growth? (OilDrum) [link] #PeakOil #PostScarcity #energy
@TestyMic » 19 Jul '12, 11pm
RT @PCNEnergy: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@CharleneBWright » 19 Jul '12, 8pm
Evidence that #Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth from @TheOilDrum [link]
@waynemaceyka » 19 Jul '12, 3pm
via @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth: The usual assumption that economi... [link]
@jhmi » 19 Jul '12, 12pm
@johnauthers Perhaps worth a quick look-see: "Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth: [link]
@malabaddon » 19 Jul '12, 11am
RT @casdeiro: Para los que aún no entienden que si el petróleo declina, se acabó el crecimiento [link] #peakoil #endofgrowth #decrecimiento
@vesperadenada » 19 Jul '12, 11am
Para @vicencnavarro crecer 1% del PIB es "insuficiente" [link] Lo que va a ser es imposible. Debería leer [link]
@small_talks » 19 Jul '12, 10am
RT @PeaksAndBubbles: RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@martins_79 » 19 Jul '12, 10am
RT @OIL_MEN: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth, by Gail the Actuary | TheOilDrum [link] #peakoil
@vesperadenada » 19 Jul '12, 10am
If we want world real GDP to grow by 3.0% per year, we need oil supply to grow by 2.2% [link] via @theoildrum #peakoil
@TrailblazerBF » 19 Jul '12, 9am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] #energy #in
@GroenWerkt » 19 Jul '12, 8am
#oildr Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth #mlfeeds: The usual assumption that economis... [link]
@OIL_MEN » 19 Jul '12, 8am
Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth, by Gail the Actuary | TheOilDrum [link] #peakoil
@msgbi » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TeraEuro: RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] cc @MSagebiel
@cleantechdeals » 19 Jul '12, 8am
Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth: (Source: The Oil Drum) The usual assumption that e... [link]
@resourcerules » 19 Jul '12, 8am
@PeakOilNews: TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@Twundit » 19 Jul '12, 8am
Gail the actuary RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@TeraEuro » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] cc @MSagebiel
@casdeiro » 19 Jul '12, 8am
Para los que aún no entienden que si el petróleo declina, se acabó el crecimiento [link] #peakoil #endofgrowth #decrecimiento
@casdeiro » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @theoildrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] #peakoil #endofgrowth
@qdepim » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@ProfBEEVANS » 19 Jul '12, 9am
Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@primalkb » 19 Jul '12, 9am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@nikharron » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@erxyzzy » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@NestortUraIlla » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@Cimation » 19 Jul '12, 8am
Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@TTBolton » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@alomorga » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@MBRMark » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@ethicsgirls » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]
@vesperadenada » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @theoildrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link] #peakoil #endofgrowth
@HallyMk1 » 19 Jul '12, 8am
RT @TheOilDrum: Evidence that Oil Limits are Leading to Limits to GDP Growth [link]