01 Jun '14, 3pm

Peak Oil Update

Peak Oil Update

Conventional oil production actually peaked in 2006 and has been declining slightly since that point. Unconventional oil is largely keeping us on the ‘oscillating plateau’ but many sources consider this to be a short term phenomenon due to the rapid decline rates of tight oil, and geological and capital constraints. What happens post peak largely depends on what the total decline rates of conventional fields are. Typically an conventional oil field declines at about 6%/a but unconventionals and substitution may flatten this out to a long term plateau or mild decline. The IMF released a policy paper on peak oil and considers a 2%/a decline an unlikely scenario. However in their model this would produce an unsustainable 800% increase in oil prices. Since the economy could not sustain that price Kumhoff speculates the system would become nonlinear and demand destruction would...

Full article: http://peakoil.com/consumption/peak-oil-update

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