23 Nov '11, 8am
Deepwater GOM: Reserves versus Production - Part 3: Older Fields and Conclusion
Most of shallow water fields are largely depleted and the estimates published by the end of 2006 are reliable when compared to the cumulative production trend. The average decline for these fields is about 0.5% per month or 6% per annum. Deepwater fields display an earlier peak and a sharper decline, about 2% per month or 22% per annum. Because of this sharp decline, Deepwater fields require more wells to be drilled, despite most of the drilling being planned beforehand in these very expensive platforms. The estimated reserves look fair, but the lack of data on future drilling from the operators (in particular BP) prevents a reliable extrapolation from past production. But it seems that past discoveries presented in figure 3 will not change much, and so neither the extrapolation; only a new cycle of discoveries can change this outlook. The Hubbert linearization (poorly rel...