30 Sep '11, 8am
Deepwater GOM: Reserves versus Production - Part 1: Thunder Horse & Mars-Ursa
This a guest post by Jean Lahérrere , a long time guest contributor to TheOilDrum. Jean thoroughly analyses field production data for the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) in several posts. The goal of this series is to compare the evolution of reserves estimates in the GOM with the actual production figures that show the oil decline. Thereby the reliability of reserve estimates can be investigated. This first installment shall look into Thunder Horse and Mars-Ursa fields. The world oil and gas 2P cumulative discoveries can be modelled with 3 cycles [NE : 2P discoveries represent those resources are proven as reserves plus those that probably shall become reserves; more details here ]. For crude excluding extra-heavy oil, the first cycle corresponds to surface exploration (1900-1950); the second cycle to seismic exploration starting in 1930 and a third cycle corresponding to deepwater ...