27 Apr '18, 6am

The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts

The Problem with EIA Shale Gas and Tight Oil Forecasts

If the AEO2018 reference case projections are compared to the EIA’s most recent assumptions of proven reserves plus unproven resources, tight oil production would extract 96% of remaining tight oil and shale gas production would extract 77% of remaining shale gas by 2050, even though unproven resources (which are 86% of remaining potential) have not been demonstrated to be economically recoverable and are based on unrealistically large estimates of productive area for most plays. Furthermore, as the EIA projections assume that production will be at much higher levels in 2050 than today, they imply that there are vastly more additional resources to be recovered after 2050 than suggested by the EIA’s own estimates. Indeed, in several plays the EIA’s projections assume that more than 100% of its estimates of proven reserves plus unproven resources will be recovered before 205...

Full article: http://www.postcarbon.org/the-problem-with-eia-shale-gas-...

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